Rewind to July 2023 and they looked unstoppable, having each grown sales more than 20% in a year. Lidl and Aldi then had a combined share of 18.1%, having gained nearly two percentage points. Fast-forward to the latest update this week and the pattern looks different, with Aldi in negative growth for a second successive month and its share at 10.5% in the 12 weeks to 13 July, down from 10.9% a year earlier. Lidl’s is at 7.5%, up from 7.2%. So, their combined share is actually lower, at 18%.
The variety discounters are also losing momentum: B&M UK last week reported a 3.5% decline in like-for-like sales in its first quarter to 29 June. And earlier in July, Poundland reported a 6.9% decline in like-for-likes in the three months to 30 June.
And although it’s still opening stores, Aldi has only opened about 10 so far this year, with another 25 in the pipeline before Christmas taking its estate close to 1,050. On the other hand Lidl has fared better this year, despite its estate shrinking by a net five from March to July.
Growth slowdown
Aldi has had much higher sales densities than Lidl for some time – a similar number of outlets, but a notably larger share. That’s put Lidl GB in a better position to grow sales from its existing 960-plus stores, and it also points to improvements in its warehouse infrastructure in the past year, which have enabled it to better service stores. Operational excellence sets it up for continued growth, it adds.
Value retail challenges
The value retail channel – B&M, et cetera – has similar challenges. It will not help the variety discounters, with their mixed food and general merchandise ranges, that the latest Price Index has non-food in 1% deflation in June, in contrast to 2.5% inflation in FMCG. The weather and supply chain disruption can have a bigger impact in this channel than for food retailers.
Indeed, B&M blamed the like-for-like sales decline in its latest quarter on “unseasonal weather in April and May this year”. B&M UK grew revenues 1.5% to £1.1bn as it opened 19 stores, taking the estate to 755. Heron Foods, its sister frozen chain, saw 2.7% revenue growth.
Poundland’s recent third quarter 6.9% drop in like-for-likes followed a similar – though not so dramatic – decline in its first half to 31 March, when like-for-like sales were down 0.7%. In both cases, the retailer blamed the challenges of implementing a new group-level sourcing arrangement through parent Pepco for clothing and general merchandise, a transition that began last September. It also reduced its estate by 19 stores to 845, closing underperforming stores.